There’s no simplifying quantum computing, so pay attention
Quantum computing is the opposite of the 1s and 0s we’re familiar with in binary code – it’s a different type of computing based on the quantum state of subatomic particles. These particles are used to represent information and we call them quantum bits (qubits), which can represent all possible values between 1 and 0 at the same time (a sate of ‘superposition’) until it is measured. What does that mean in practical terms? It means some calculations can be done much faster, solving difficult problems and delivering serious competitive advantage to early adopters: according to McKinsey, quantum will enable up to $700 billion in value by 2035.
The industries most likely to be disrupted by quantum computing are pharmaceuticals (molecular structures in biopharmaceuticals), chemicals (catalyst designs, supply chain optimisation), automotive (product design, robotics) and finance (portfolio and risk management).
Quantum computing will always rely on some fundamental physical conditions. The entangled qubits need high stability to be read – meaning next to no vibration. It’s achieved by reaching near absolute zero: around -270°C. Your average data centre cooling system isn’t going to cut it. Quantum computing hardware has significantly developed this year, including Dublin-based Equal1’s solution which is rack-mountable and includes cryogenic cooling.
Some companies are racing to develop a quantum computer with the most qubits. Fujitsu and IBM have announced systems with over 400 qubits. Atom Computing has announced they have over 1,000. Google has announced 70 qubits. Why does the amount matter? There will come a point when quantum supremacy will arrive, when quantum computers will overtake high performance computing. Sources vary as to how many qubits that will take. Let’s take the answer as 408 (as argued by Dalzell et al in 2020). You’d be forgiven for thinking we are already at that level but there’s a key factor: it’s not infallible.
One of the other significant races right now in quantum computing is error correction. In classical computers (the ones we use every day), an error occurs when a 1 unexpectedly becomes a 0, or vice versa. In classical computing, that happens 10^-18 whereas in quantum computing it’s 10^-4 or 1 in 10,000 operations. In other words, to have reliable quantum computers, we need a much lower error rate.
There are a variety of techniques to reduce error rate. Logical qubits (physical qubits, connected through quantum entanglement), store the same data in different places and this lessens calculation errors. A new technique is emerging to evaluate the precision of quantum code for error correction.
Other techniques are equally technically tricky and work continues to mature them such as trapped ions, superconducting circuits, and reconfigurable atom arrays. Quantum computers are being built now to have built-in error correction by multiple organisations a problem predicted to be solved by the end of this year.
Microsoft and Quantiuum (Microsoft and Mitsui&Co. are significant backers of Quantimuum) have made significant announcements in this space this year, as have the companies mentioned above plus other key players you might not have heard of: QuEra, Alice & Bob, IQM Quantum Computers.
Investments are mainly coming from the industries mentioned above plus governments. Several public sector initiatives are funding large amounts of this work, such as the US National Quantum Initiative to accelerate research and development in quantum information science and technology and the UK government who this year provided $57 million for private sector quantum computing research and to create a ‘quantum-enabled economy’ which will support public sector projects aimed at solving practical problems. These investments materially support private sector investments in quantum computing and are driven by the recognition of the potential to solve complex problems in fields such as finance, healthcare, and materials science.
Bridging the quantum gap
While quantum technology, algorithms, software are still developing, many of the same companies are also pioneering quantum simulators – ways to use quantum computing algorithms on appropriate devices to explore and address real life challenges. This gives a helpful entryway for organisations and researchers to test hypotheses and put some of the use cases to the test.
Some organisations are offering test-beds for researchers and companies and organisations such as RIKEN & Fujitsu, IBM, offer cloud-based Quantum Computing in a hybrid model between supercomputers and quantum computers. This makes access easier for organisations who cannot easily provide the physical conditions for a local quantum computer.
Quantum computing is still a very small part of the market but is estimated about $3.6 billion, which is tiny compared to high performance computing (HPC), which has an expected value of $110 billion by 2032 according to Fortune. Quantum computing is part of the ‘next generation computing’ market, which is projected to grow from $160.97 billion in 2024 to $809.71 billion by 2032.
Next generation computing involves the creation and improvement of hardware, software, and computational methodologies to solve problems related to reliability, data processing speed, security, and efficiency. This would be delivered by technologies like quantum computing, edge computing, IoT, HPC and optical computing.
As computing and storage demands continue to rise, research institutes, governments, and businesses are increasingly exploring advanced computing methods. Out of these technologies, quantum computing is considered the most promising due to its ability to process vast amounts of data much faster than traditional computing methods.
While AI has had a bumper year of attention from techies and non-techies alike, the quantum computing industry and partners have quietly been continuing their work, making leaps and strides, particularly in qubit levels and error correction. Quantum computing merits ongoing monitoring – it will enable large yields for certain industries and looks set to mature greatly in the next 12 months.
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