Is autonomous driving a realistic goal?
The arrival of Tesla in the automotive market saved environmentally conscious consumers from a fate worse than death: the low status of the predominant ‘eco’ car, the Toyota Prius. Cue profits as Tesla stormed the market. Indeed, for a while it seemed the company could do no wrong, introducing new models, opening new factories (including in China and Germany), and a boss in Elon Musk who was routinely hailed as a genius.
Recently the picture has been slightly different: Tesla’s Cybertruck was met by a mixed response and projects such as its articulated lorry, the Tesla Semi, and true autonomous driving have been met with delay after delay.
While Tesla remains profitable, the company’s recent moves are fairly traditional for an automaker in need of shifting more units: prices have been cut, while plans for a low cost car have reportedly been shelved. In addition, layoffs continue, with 14,000 staff gone so far.
But it is not just Telsa suffering. Electric vehicle (EV) sales are flagging, notably in the US, while Chinese manufacturers appear to be gearing-up to flood the market, including, apparently, considering beginning manufacturing in France. At the same time, US car giants General Motors and Ford have pulled back from EVs, and Toyota’s scepticism is well-documented.
Of course, what is not news is that automotive manufacturing is a tough business, and it is undeniable that, in spite of this, Tesla has transformed the sector.
However, Musk’s fans have long been adamant that Tesla is not just a car company. Musk himself appears to take this view, too, despite the fact that Tesla’s non-car activities – step forward SolarCity – have not set the world alight. Tesla’s humanoid robot, too, appears to significantly lag developments from Boston Dynamics.
More recently, Musk has positioned Tesla as the leader in artificial intelligence (AI). Posting on X, the social network formerly known as Twitter that he bought in 2022, Musk said: “As Cathie Wood states, Tesla is the biggest AI project on Earth”.
Musk’s tweet was in response to Wood, founder of ARK Investment Management, whose funds have been flagging since the end of the Covid pandemic-inspired tech share boom, telling interviewers that Tesla shares would rise to at least $2,000. At the time of writing, Tesla shares trade for $184. Wood also justified her claims for Tesla on the basis that it combines AI, robotics and energy storage. Clearly she thinks it is no mere car company.
The company’s latest wheeze is to turn the existing Tesla fleet into a sort of Amazon Web Services or Microsoft Azure on wheels, something that feels more like a bone thrown to investors than a serious plan. The real issue with Tesla, though, is that the shine has come off Musk. Delay after delay on promised technical innovations, not least autonomous driving, means that each successive announcement is met with increasing scepticism.
In addition, since buying Twitter, Musk, already outspoken, has become an increasingly divisive figure. From engaging with dreary and pointless culture wars to supporting Argentina’s president Javier Millei (among others), Musk appears to be increasingly determined to carve out a space for himself on the right wing of politics.
Musk is hardly the first captain of industry to push a political line. Far from it. However, his abrasiveness combined with his access to an unfiltered, 24/7 communications channel is novel enough.
Tesla certainly has designs on being more than a mere car company, and part of that vision, if it plays out, would lead to the end of cars as we know them. After all, fully autonomous vehicles could scarcely be described as cars.
On Sunday, Musk posted on X saying: “Tesla Robotaxi unveil on 8/8”.
Will it happen? We’ll see, but while autonomous driving may seem “blindingly obvious” to Musk, the jury is still out on the question of whether it is viable or even desirable. And besides, Tesla (and others) have been promising self-driving cars for a very long time.
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